SurveyUSA (9/5-7, likely voters):
Andrew Rice (D): 34
Jim Inhofe (R-inc): 56
(MoE: ±3.9%)
Oof. These numbers are very different than the ones we saw in a recent DSCC internal which showed Inhofe leading by 50-41. Granted, this poll was taken during the full bloom of Palinmania! and other GOP convention absurdities, but I really doubt that that dog and pony show was responsible for the margins that we’re seeing here.
Bonus finding: McCain is creaming Obama by a 65-32 margin in the Sooner state.
….will be McCain’s best state this year. Better than Idaho. Better than Wyoming. Better than Utah. It likely means that nearly half of McCain voters would need to cross over to Rice for him to win. That even makes Brad Carson’s 2004 mountain seem small in comparison. In all honesty, Rice’s best hope is likely to put up a respectable showing that could help him against Dr. No in 2010. One would think Coburn would be vulnerable given his reputation and extremism, but who the hell knows in Oklahoma.
Oklahoma is right up there with Utah in the difficulty of electing Democrats to federal office outside of their once Democratic district. Rice is a good candidate and Inhofe is insane but I don’t think that will be enough.
I think Nebraska where their is a Democratic senator and a history of Democratic senators, the polls are about the same and where we’ve got someone close in the money race is a much better bet for a pickup. Georgia is probably the most likely of the longshots though.
Rice is one of the only Senate candidates I’ve donated to this cycle. DraftUdall, DraftDeFazio, Noriega (early), Merkley (after the primary), Rice, and I think that’s it for Senate. I damn near donated to him again yesterday. What a bummer of a poll.
Inhofe should lose. And, he’d be one of the highest-payoff victories of the cycle, because it would be assumed to be a single-issue campaign (global warming), and those are the most powerful kind for impacting larger policy dynamics (Lieberman/Lamont, anyone?). It’d be like Pombo or Musgrave, but statewide, and Senate. And global warming is my biggest single issue anyway, so I wanted this one. Arg.
I hate voters.
It has Republicans with a 3% voter ID advantage. In comparison, the latest figures are D – 50%, R – 39%. Many of them don’t actually vote Democrat, but they’re still registered as such.
He won Oklahoma in 2004, didn’t he? And Al Gore both campaign and fundraise for him… Considering that Inhofe is a lunatic on global warming.